Survey: Will Lucid Motors Hit 2022 Production Goals

June 27, 2022

Financial Journey posted a poll on Twitter asking “Do you think $LCID is going to hit their 2022 production goals?” The poll received over 200 responses and only 33%, 1/3rd, felt Lucid Motors would be able to hit its production goals for 2022. 51% said they think it will be close but they won’t hit those numbers. The rest just felt it won’t happen but offered more reason.

For example, here is a response from one of the earliest folks to get a Lucid Air, who said he doesn’t necessarily think Lucid Motors will hit those figures but he does think in the long term, they will smash it.

Personally, I think he is dead on and that five years from now, we will look back and say – wow – this was a great investment. But I am biased, I love the company, the car and the community around it. I think the company has lined everything up right to be a huge success.

Where Is Lucid Motors Right Now With Production/Deliveries

The latest figure we know is a combination from the recall figures of 1,117 cars delivered through mid-May 2022. Since then, we know Lucid Motors had an anticipated and scheduled production pause between May 29th and June 4th. The scheduled pause is not a concern because I am sure Lucid Motors calculated that in their estimates. But as I reported, there were unanticipated and unscheduled production delays due to the recall.

We saw Lucid delivery centers stop receiving cars for a period of time, Lucid also doubled the inspection of each car and even adding one third final inspection and is now starting to deliver those cars from mid-May through mid-June. In fact, Zak Edson, the VP of Sales and Service, sent some Lucid Air customers emails about this delay back on June 14th telling those customers they hope to deliver their cars by June 30th.

So as of mid-May 2022, we know Lucid Mootrs delivered 1,117 cars.

How Many Lucid Air EVs Can Lucid Motors Delivery By June 30, 2022

What about since then, from when we received the 1,117 figure in mid-May through the end of June – which is just a few days away. Well, we do not have any insights from Lucid Motors about this figure and we won’t know until their Q2 2022 earnings call and statement. But if we had to guess based on what we have been following – how many Lucid Airs would be delivered by June 30th?

Before the recall and visible production delays, on May 6th, I predicted between 1,560 and 1,860 by June 30, 2022. Keep in mind, Lucid Motors did reiterate in their Q1 2022 earnings statement saying “Lucid reiterated its 2022 production volume outlook of 12,000 to 14,000 vehicles and ended the quarter.” So Lucid does think it will be able to really ramp up production in the coming months. Again, that was before the recall and the unscheduled production issues.

In the past week, we have seen a lot of inventory flowing out of the Lucid Motors factory in Arizona. But prior to that, we had several weeks of little to no inventory coming out of that production factory. We know Zak Edson, the VP of Sales and Service notified those who had their Lucid Air EVs stuck in the queue during the recall and revitalized inspection checks that those cars would be delivered by June 30th.

I just think we are too far behind now to hit the 1,860 figure. I think we might come close to my lower estimate of 1,560 Lucid Air EVs delivered but not the 1,860 figure. I hope I am wrong.

The bigger issue is hitting the 12,000 to 14,000 vehicles delivered by year end of 2022. I don’t think Lucid Motors can hit that figure with already seeing Lucid Motors delaying the Touring trim from Q3 to Q4 and other dates being pushed off recently.

I am hopeful Lucid Motors would get 10,000 vehicles delivered by year end but I really don’t know. The Q2 earnings will make things clearer. Even if some miracle happened and they delivered over 1,860 cars by the end of June, that means they still need to produce and deliver over 10,000 cars in the last two quarters.

  • In Q4 2021, Lucid said they delivered 125 cars directly to customers, while producing 400 cars in Q4.
  • In that same Q4 earnings report, Lucid said a total of 300 cars were delivered including the 125 that quarter.
  • In Q1 2022, Lucid said it delivered 360 cars to customers in Q4 alone, while producing 700 cars in that quarter.
  • In the Q1 2022 earnings call, Lucid said in April it delivered 300 cars alone.
  • By mid-May 2022, Lucid said a total of 1,117 cars were delivered from day one.

To be clear, I am not covering this for financial or $LCID stock price reasons. I am way more curious on when I will be getting my Lucid Air Grand Touring that I confirmed in late March and reserved on February 1st. I was expecting to have this car by the end of June, but now I am thinking it will be just about September as to when I will receive my Lucid.

I just don’t see how Lucid Motors can hit my estimate or their own estimates. Do you disagree? Share your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter.